Illinois State
MVFC · 4-3 vs FCS · 4-3 overall
Strength of record
#65
A #25-level team matches it 94% of the time
Power
#31
+8.9 pts · likely #12–51
Strength of schedule
30.3
#73 of 128
Strength of victory
6.5
#75
Record SOS
0.419
Opp. 38.1% · Opp. opp. 49.7%
Remaining SOS
42.8
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
4-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (7)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Dayton | W 41-0 | −20.2 | −2.4 | 0.016 | 4 | +12.7 |
| 2 | at Western Illinois | W 34-18 | −15.9 | +2.4 | 0.063 | 4 | +2.7 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | L 13-14 | +0.2 | +2.4 | 0.332 | 2 | +1.8 |
| 4 | vs Lindenwood | W 48-17 | −9.4 | −2.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 9: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.442
- Wk 10: at Missouri State · p 0.483
- Wk 11: vs Murray State · p 0.113
- Wk 12: at North Dakota · p 0.675