Montana State
Big Sky · 4-1 vs FCS · 4-1 overall
Strength of record
#15
A #25-level team matches it 34% of the time
Power
#2
+21.9 pts · likely #1–10
Strength of schedule
37.1
#32 of 128
Strength of victory
24.0
#24
Record SOS
0.657
Opp. 70.0% · Opp. opp. 57.3%
Remaining SOS
49.1
7 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
1-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah Tech | W 63-20 | −3.5 | −2.7 | 0.151 | 3 | +28.1 |
| 2 | at South Dakota State | L 16-20 | +24.8 | +2.7 | 0.896 | 1 | +23.2 |
| 3 | vs Stetson | W 57-20 | −14.2 | −2.7 | 0.039 | 4 | +19.1 |
| 4 | at Weber State | W 40-0 | +6.8 | +2.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: vs Cal Poly · p 0.058
- Wk 8: at Sacramento State · p 0.669
- Wk 9: at Idaho · p 0.736
- Wk 10: vs Northern Arizona · p 0.330
- Wk 11: vs Eastern Washington · p 0.281
- Wk 12: at Montana · p 0.597
- Wk 14: vs North Dakota State · p 0.763