Illinois State
MVFC · 3-2 vs FCS · 3-2 overall
Strength of record
#62
A #25-level team matches it 94% of the time
Power
#38
+6.4 pts · likely #17–62
Strength of schedule
26.5
#81 of 128
Strength of victory
7.1
#46
Record SOS
0.446
Opp. 45.0% · Opp. opp. 43.8%
Remaining SOS
39.0
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
3-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Dayton | W 41-0 | −15.5 | −2.7 | 0.032 | 4 | +15.7 |
| 2 | at Western Illinois | W 34-18 | −12.9 | +2.7 | 0.096 | 4 | +5.9 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | L 13-14 | −0.7 | +2.7 | 0.317 | 2 | +1.3 |
| 4 | vs Lindenwood | W 48-17 | −8.6 | −2.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: vs Indiana State · p 0.073
- Wk 8: at Youngstown State · p 0.671
- Wk 9: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.345
- Wk 10: at Missouri State · p 0.473
- Wk 11: vs Murray State · p 0.097
- Wk 12: at North Dakota · p 0.680