Illinois State
MVFC · 5-4 vs FCS · 5-4 overall
Strength of record
#59
A #25-level team matches it 90% of the time
Power
#30
+8.3 pts · likely #13–51
Strength of schedule
34.3
#51 of 128
Strength of victory
14.3
#76
Record SOS
0.455
Opp. 42.9% · Opp. opp. 50.9%
Remaining SOS
37.0
2 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
1-2
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
3-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (9)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Dayton | W 41-0 | −20.2 | −2.6 | 0.016 | 4 | +13.1 |
| 2 | at Western Illinois | W 34-18 | −17.7 | +2.6 | 0.050 | 4 | +0.9 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | L 13-14 | −0.1 | +2.6 | 0.330 | 2 | +1.4 |
| 4 | vs Lindenwood | W 48-17 | −11.0 | −2.6 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 11: vs Murray State · p 0.107
- Wk 12: at North Dakota · p 0.633