St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer · 3-1 vs FCS · 5-1 overall
Strength of record
#46
A #25-level team matches it 85% of the time
Power
#70
−1.6 pts · likely #43–104
Strength of schedule
18.6
#123 of 130
Strength of victory
14.9
#53
Record SOS
0.417
Opp. 38.8% · Opp. opp. 47.6%
Remaining SOS
14.7
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
1-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against St. Thomas (MN). p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Southern Utah | L 13-44 | −0.7 | +1.7 | 0.295 | 2 | −26.9 |
| 5 | at Marist | W 38-24 | −15.0 | +1.7 | 0.065 | 4 | +2.0 |
| 6 | vs Davidson | W 27-16 | +4.5 | −1.7 | 0.338 | 2 | +11.5 |
| 7 | vs Drake | W 26-14 | −14.2 | −1.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: at Presbyterian · p 0.035
- Wk 9: vs San Diego · p 0.151
- Wk 10: at Valparaiso · p 0.236
- Wk 11: vs Stetson · p 0.086
- Wk 12: at Butler · p 0.225
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 2: vs Michigan TechDII · W 32-6
- Wk 4: vs Lincoln University (CA)DII · W 43-6