Morehead State
Pioneer · 1-4 vs FCS · 2-4 overall
Strength of record
#108
A #25-level team matches it 100% of the time
Power
#109
−8.6 pts · likely #74–124
Strength of schedule
38.6
#21 of 130
Strength of victory
1.7
1 wins
Record SOS
0.468
Opp. 50.0% · Opp. opp. 40.4%
Remaining SOS
14.0
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-2
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-1
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (5)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Morehead State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mercer | L 13-63 | +19.0 | +1.7 | 0.787 | 1 | −14.1 |
| 2 | at Montana State | L 13-63 | +11.7 | +1.7 | 0.619 | 1 | −20.3 |
| 4 | at Stetson | L 26-38 | −12.1 | +1.7 | 0.094 | 4 | −18.9 |
| 5 | vs Presbyterian | W 14-10 | −20.5 | −1.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: vs Valparaiso · p 0.171
- Wk 9: at Butler · p 0.225
- Wk 10: vs Marist · p 0.037
- Wk 11: at Dayton · p 0.117
- Wk 12: vs San Diego · p 0.151
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 3: vs Kentucky ChristianNon-NCAA · W 49-14