Merrimack
NEC · 4-2 vs FCS · 5-2 overall
Strength of record
#43
A #25-level team matches it 80% of the time
Power
#41
+4.4 pts · likely #21–71
Strength of schedule
28.2
#79 of 130
Strength of victory
16.8
#48
Record SOS
0.445
Opp. 40.3% · Opp. opp. 53.0%
Remaining SOS
24.8
4 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-1
Tier 2
Strong
1-1
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (6)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Merrimack. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Holy Cross | L 17-31 | +14.5 | −1.7 | 0.602 | 1 | −1.2 |
| 3 | at Harvard | L 21-28 OT | +4.2 | +1.7 | 0.416 | 2 | +3.0 |
| 4 | at Delaware State | W 26-13 | −2.1 | +1.7 | 0.261 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 5 | vs Long Island | W 24-23 | −9.6 | −1.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: vs Sacred Heart · p 0.188
- Wk 9: at Stonehill · p 0.223
- Wk 11: at Central Connecticut State · p 0.108
- Wk 12: vs Saint Francis · p 0.471
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 2: vs AssumptionDII · W 45-17