Valparaiso
Pioneer · 2-2 vs FCS · 3-2 overall
Strength of record
#76
A #25-level team matches it 97% of the time
Power
#73
−1.9 pts · likely #40–105
Strength of schedule
23.6
#101 of 130
Strength of victory
9.0
2 wins
Record SOS
0.313
Opp. 25.0% · Opp. opp. 44.0%
Remaining SOS
11.0
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-2
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Valparaiso. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at Illinois State | L 21-28 | +5.4 | +1.9 | 0.455 | 2 | −0.3 |
| 3 | at Dartmouth | L 13-35 | −0.3 | +1.9 | 0.309 | 2 | −17.2 |
| 4 | vs San Diego | W 28-21 | −5.9 | −1.9 | 0.128 | 3 | −0.4 |
| 6 | at Presbyterian | W 41-21 | −16.9 | +1.9 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: vs Butler · p 0.145
- Wk 8: at Morehead State · p 0.100
- Wk 9: at Dayton · p 0.090
- Wk 10: vs St. Thomas (MN) · p 0.198
- Wk 11: at Marist · p 0.087
- Wk 12: vs Drake · p 0.041
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Indiana WesleyanNon-NCAA · W 20-17