Montana State
Big Sky · 4-0 vs FCS · 4-1 overall
Strength of record
#12
A #25-level team matches it 33% of the time
Power
#14
+9.8 pts · likely #6–49
Strength of schedule
23.2
#88 of 130
Strength of victory
23.2
#20
Record SOS
0.484
Opp. 41.7% · Opp. opp. 61.8%
Remaining SOS
36.1
9 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
1-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Montana State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs McNeese | W 40-17 | −6.0 | −2.3 | 0.121 | 3 | +13.8 |
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 63-13 | −8.8 | −2.3 | 0.086 | 4 | +22.1 |
| 4 | at Eastern Washington | W 38-35 | +1.5 | +2.3 | 0.363 | 2 | +7.4 |
| 5 | vs UC Davis | W 41-24 | +6.0 | −2.3 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: vs Idaho State · p 0.130
- Wk 7: at Northern Colorado · p 0.302
- Wk 8: vs Weber State · p 0.403
- Wk 10: at Northern Arizona · p 0.265
- Wk 11: at Cal Poly · p 0.150
- Wk 12: vs Montana · p 0.594
- Wk 14: vs Weber State · p 0.403
- Wk 15: vs William & Mary · p 0.464
- Wk 16: at South Dakota State · p 0.539
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 3: vs (N) Oregon StateFBS · L 28-68