South Dakota beat North Dakota 26-23 in overtime, Villanova knocked off Lehigh 24-18 and Montana State held off Weber State 38-33. Those results moved the Patriot bid, reshuffled the MVFC seed line and pushed Weber State out of the field.
This is our third FCS playoff projection of 2026. It shows the field if the season ended today: the automatic qualifiers, at-larges, seeds, first-round pairings and first four out.
Every pick starts from the Redshirt Sports FCS Top 25 after Week 8. Tarleton State is No. 1 with 20 of 23 first-place votes and 572 points. As far as Redshirt Sports knows, the committee doesn't use our poll, but it can be a good indicator.
Our Week 7 projection seeded off the committee's Oct. 20 top 10. This week we're back to our Week 8 poll. Teams on the committee's list have lost since it came out, so the seeds below come from current results and our poll. The committee's second top 10 comes out Nov. 5.
How the field works
The bracket has 24 teams: 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-larges. The top 16 are seeded, and the top eight get first-round byes. Seeds 9 through 16 host the eight unseeded teams in the first round. The NCAA pairs those games mostly by geography and keeps conference opponents apart in the first round unless they did not meet in the regular season.
The automatic-bid leagues are the Big Sky, CAA, Ivy, MVFC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Pioneer, SoCon, Southland and UAC. Selection Sunday is Nov. 22, and the first round is Nov. 28.
Our formula
Starting this week, we use one set of steps for every team.
Automatic bids go to the team with the fewest league losses today. Ties are broken by head-to-head result, then by rank in our poll, then by record against Division I teams.
To be an at-large, a team needs a winning record against Division I opponents today and a path to at least seven Division I wins. Teams at .500 or worse against Division I are out, no matter their wins.
Eligible teams are ordered by our poll. When teams are close in the poll, wins over FCS Top 25 teams come first, then Division I record. Only teams in our current FCS Top 25 count as ranked wins. For the last at-large spot, a stronger résumé can beat poll order: better wins, including wins over FBS teams, and results against common opponents.
Seeds follow our poll, with one change: if two teams next to each other on the seed line played, the winner goes ahead.
First-round games are paired by distance. Teams from the same conference are kept apart in the first round unless they did not meet in the regular season, and we avoided regular-season rematches.
That process matches recent fields. In 2025 the MVFC drew six bids, and North Dakota got in at 7-5, so a league's depth and a seventh Division I win both matter. The 7-4 line is a guide, not a cutoff.
Projected automatic qualifiers
Big Sky: Montana State (7-1, 4-1). The Bobcats beat Weber State 38-33 and own a 28-14 win over Northern Arizona, which is also 4-1. That head-to-head win moves the bid from Northern Arizona to Montana State. Weber State is 4-2.
CAA: Campbell (7-1, 4-0). The Camels won 35-6 at Maine and are 7-0 against FCS teams. Monmouth is 5-0 in the league, but Campbell is higher in our poll, and the two meet Nov. 21.
Ivy: Harvard (6-0, 3-0). The Crimson beat Princeton 35-7, which knocked the Tigers to 2-1 in the league. Yale visits Nov. 21.
MVFC: South Dakota State (6-2, 3-1). The Jackrabbits beat Murray State 42-9. South Dakota and Youngstown State are 4-1, so all three teams have one league loss. South Dakota State beat Youngstown State 27-20 on Sept. 19, and Youngstown State beat South Dakota 47-28 on Sept. 26. Among the three, that makes South Dakota State 1-0, Youngstown State 1-1 and South Dakota 0-1. South Dakota State and South Dakota haven't played yet. They meet Oct. 31 in Brookings, and that game will reshape the race.
NEC: Central Connecticut (4-3, 3-0). The Blue Devils beat New Haven 42-20 and are the only NEC team without a league loss. LIU lost 18-14 to Stonehill and fell to 3-1.
OVC: Southeast Missouri State (5-3, 3-0). The Redhawks won 20-10 at Eastern Illinois and are still unbeaten in league play.
Patriot: Richmond (6-2, 4-1). The Spiders beat Colgate 13-6, and Lehigh lost 24-18 at Villanova. Both are 4-1, and they haven't played, so Richmond gets the bid as the higher team in our poll. Lehigh visits Richmond on Nov. 14.
Pioneer: Dayton (6-1, 3-1). Dayton, St. Thomas, Butler and Marist are all 3-1. Dayton won 19-9 at Butler and has the best overall record of the four. St. Thomas won 35-13 at Marist, and St. Thomas visits Butler on Nov. 7.
SoCon: East Tennessee State (6-2, 4-0). The Buccaneers won 38-0 at VMI and are the only SoCon team without a league loss. Tennessee Tech visits Saturday.
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (8-0, 5-0). The Lumberjacks beat Southeastern Louisiana 45-24. They play at Lamar on Nov. 7.
UAC: Tarleton State (8-0, 3-0). The Texans won 49-6 at West Georgia. Abilene Christian is also 3-0 in the league, but Tarleton is No. 1 in our poll, and the Wildcats visit Stephenville on Nov. 7.
The 13 at-larges
Youngstown State (6-2). The Penguins had a bye. They beat South Dakota 47-28, and their losses were 27-20 at South Dakota State and at Kentucky. North Dakota visits Oct. 31.
South Dakota (7-2). The Coyotes beat North Dakota 26-23 in overtime. Their losses were at Boise State and at Youngstown State.
Northern Arizona (6-2). The Lumberjacks had a bye. They beat Montana 49-44, and their losses were at Arizona and at Montana State.
North Dakota (6-3). The Fighting Hawks lost in overtime at South Dakota, but they still own a 21-10 win over South Dakota State. Their other losses were at Nebraska and at Northern Iowa.
Austin Peay (7-2). The Governors won 27-21 at North Alabama. Their losses were at Vanderbilt and 40-32 at home to Tarleton State.
Tennessee Tech (7-1). The Golden Eagles won 28-13 at The Citadel. They beat Monmouth and won at Chattanooga, and their only loss was 44-20 at Western Carolina.
Illinois State (6-2). The Redbirds beat Indiana State 17-10. They won at Northern Illinois, and their losses were at Northern Iowa and to South Dakota State. They are 5-2 against Division I teams.
Lamar (6-2). The Cardinals beat Houston Christian 35-10. They beat Abilene Christian and won at Idaho, and they lost at Louisiana and at Southeastern Louisiana.
Montana (5-3). The Grizzlies had a bye. Their 62-22 win at UC Davis is a ranked win, but they have lost two straight, at Northern Arizona and to Idaho, and they also lost at Oregon State.
Mercer (6-2). The Bears had a bye. They won at Abilene Christian, and their losses were to Furman and at Georgia Tech.
Monmouth (6-2). The Hawks won 49-13 at Hampton to go 5-0 in the CAA. They won at UAlbany, and their losses were at Tennessee Tech and at Western Michigan.
Lehigh (6-2). The Mountain Hawks lost 24-18 at Villanova, their second straight loss after a 48-38 defeat at Cornell. At 6-2 against Division I teams, they stay in.
Idaho State (5-3). The Bengals beat Portland State 38-8. They won 29-17 at Utah State, an FBS team, and 28-24 at Southern Utah, which beat UC Davis 38-17. All five of their wins came against Division I teams, and their losses were 38-31 to Northern Arizona, 25-24 to Cal Poly and 27-20 at Weber State.
Why Montana and East Tennessee State are the last two seeds
Montana takes No. 15. The Grizzlies are No. 15 in our poll and have a ranked win at UC Davis, but they have three losses, the most of any seeded team.
East Tennessee State takes No. 16. The Buccaneers are No. 16 in our poll and lead the SoCon. Mercer, at No. 17, is the first team off the seed line. East Tennessee State's Oct. 31 game with Tennessee Tech could move either team.
Why Illinois State is on the road: The FCS first round is Nov. 28, and the IHSA state football finals are at Hancock Stadium on Nov. 27-28. So the Redbirds, the No. 13 seed, play at Southeast Missouri State instead of hosting. It's the same trip Illinois State made in 2024, when it was the No. 12 seed and played at Southeast Missouri State.
Idaho State takes the last at-large spot over UC Davis. UC Davis is No. 21 in our poll and Idaho State isn't ranked, so this is a résumé call, not a poll call. Idaho State won at Utah State, an FBS team, and won 28-24 at Southern Utah. UC Davis lost 38-17 at Southern Utah, and it has no FBS win. Neither team has a ranked win.
Who is out on purpose
Southeastern Louisiana (4-4). The Lions beat Lamar 34-31 and won 38-35 at UL Monroe, but they are 4-4 against Division I teams and are no longer in our poll. A .500 team doesn't get an at-large under our formula.
Abilene Christian (4-4). The Wildcats are No. 23 in our poll and 3-0 in the UAC, but they are 4-4 against Division I teams. Their path is the automatic bid, starting at Tarleton State on Nov. 7.
Villanova (4-4). The Wildcats beat Lehigh, but they are also 4-4 and unranked.
Full projected field
Seeds 1-8 (first-round byes):
No. 1 Tarleton State (UAC, automatic qualifier)
No. 2 Stephen F. Austin (Southland, automatic qualifier)
No. 3 Montana State (Big Sky, automatic qualifier)
No. 4 South Dakota State (MVFC, automatic qualifier)
No. 5 Youngstown State (MVFC)
No. 6 South Dakota (MVFC)
No. 7 Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
No. 8 North Dakota (MVFC)
Seeds 9-16 (first-round hosts):
No. 9 Austin Peay (UAC)
No. 10 Campbell (CAA, automatic qualifier)
No. 11 Harvard (Ivy, automatic qualifier)
No. 12 Tennessee Tech (SoCon)
No. 13 Illinois State (MVFC)
No. 14 Lamar (Southland)
No. 15 Montana (Big Sky)
No. 16 East Tennessee State (SoCon, automatic qualifier)
Unseeded:
Central Connecticut (NEC, automatic qualifier)
Dayton (Pioneer, automatic qualifier)
Richmond (Patriot, automatic qualifier)
Southeast Missouri State (OVC, automatic qualifier)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Mercer (SoCon)
Monmouth (CAA)
Idaho State (Big Sky)
Bids by conference: MVFC 5, Big Sky 4, SoCon 3, CAA 2, Patriot 2, Southland 2, UAC 2, Ivy 1, NEC 1, OVC 1, Pioneer 1.
South Dakota State is seeded one spot ahead of Youngstown State, which is the reverse of our poll, because the Jackrabbits beat the Penguins 27-20 on Sept. 19.
Projected pairings
We paired each first-round game by distance, kept conference opponents apart unless they did not meet in the regular season and avoided regular-season rematches. Each winner plays at the matching top-eight seed in the second round.
Monmouth at No. 16 East Tennessee State. Winner at No. 1 Tarleton State.
Mercer at No. 9 Austin Peay. Winner at No. 8 North Dakota.
No. 13 Illinois State at Southeast Missouri State. Winner at No. 4 South Dakota State.
Lehigh at No. 12 Tennessee Tech. Winner at No. 5 Youngstown State.
Idaho State at No. 14 Lamar. Winner at No. 3 Montana State.
Central Connecticut at No. 11 Harvard. Winner at No. 6 South Dakota.
Richmond at No. 10 Campbell. Winner at No. 7 Northern Arizona.
Dayton at No. 15 Montana. Winner at No. 2 Stephen F. Austin.
Central Connecticut at Harvard, Richmond at Campbell and Mercer at Austin Peay are short trips. Illinois State plays at Southeast Missouri State, as explained above. Mercer can't go to Tennessee Tech or East Tennessee State, because it plays both in November. Monmouth can't go to Campbell, which it plays Nov. 21, and it played Tennessee Tech in August, so it goes to East Tennessee State. Idaho State can't go to Montana, which it visits Nov. 14, so it goes to Lamar. That leaves Lehigh at Tennessee Tech and Dayton at Montana, the longest trip. Two second-round rematches are possible. If Illinois State wins, it plays at South Dakota State, which won 31-14 at Hancock Stadium on Oct. 3. If Idaho State wins at Lamar, it plays at Montana State, which visits Pocatello on Nov. 7. Avoiding either would mean much longer trips, and the committee has allowed rematches like these before. In 2025, Illinois State lost 33-16 to North Dakota State in October, then played at the top-seeded Bison in the second round and won 29-28.
First four out
UC Davis (5-3). The Aggies are No. 21 in our poll and the first team out. They beat Northern Colorado 33-6, but they lost 56-10 at SMU, 62-22 at home to Montana and 38-17 at Southern Utah, and they have no ranked or FBS wins. They play at Weber State on Saturday.
Weber State (5-4). The Wildcats are No. 22 in our poll, but they lost 38-33 at Montana State and have no ranked wins. They have four Division I losses, so they can't afford another. They host UC Davis on Saturday.
UAlbany (5-3). The Great Danes won 38-21 at Rhode Island and 48-31 at Stony Brook. They lost to Monmouth, at Buffalo and 22-0 at Princeton. They host Campbell on Saturday.
Chattanooga (5-3). The Mocs won 41-18 at Western Carolina, but they lost to Tennessee Tech, at Eastern Kentucky and at East Tennessee State.
Next out: Stony Brook and Princeton. Southeastern Louisiana and Abilene Christian are out because they are 4-4 against Division I teams.
Key calls in this projection
Big Sky: Montana State takes the automatic bid from Northern Arizona on head-to-head. Both are 4-1.
MVFC: South Dakota State takes the bid. It, South Dakota and Youngstown State each have one league loss. In games among the three, South Dakota State is 1-0 after beating Youngstown State, Youngstown State is 1-1 and South Dakota is 0-1. South Dakota State hosts South Dakota on Oct. 31.
Patriot: Richmond takes the bid from Lehigh, which lost at Villanova. Both are 4-1 and haven't played, so our poll breaks the tie.
Pioneer: Dayton takes the bid in a four-way tie at 3-1. It beat Butler and has the best overall record.
NEC: Central Connecticut replaces LIU after LIU lost to Stonehill.
Last spot: Idaho State gets in over No. 21 UC Davis on résumé. The Bengals won at Utah State and at Southern Utah, which beat UC Davis. Southeastern Louisiana drops out at 4-4.
Seeding: Seeds come from our Week 8 poll, not the committee's Oct. 20 list. Tarleton State is the No. 1 seed.
What changes this by November
Oct. 31: Tennessee Tech at East Tennessee State, South Dakota at South Dakota State, North Dakota at Youngstown State, UC Davis at Weber State and Campbell at UAlbany. The SoCon bid, the MVFC bid and three MVFC seeds are on the line.
Nov. 7: Stephen F. Austin at Lamar, Abilene Christian at Tarleton State, Illinois State at North Dakota and St. Thomas at Butler. Each could settle a bid or a seed.
Nov. 14: Lehigh at Richmond, Weber State at Northern Arizona, Mercer at Tennessee Tech, Illinois State at Youngstown State, Abilene Christian at Austin Peay and Butler at Marist. The Patriot bid could be decided here.
Nov. 21: Montana at Montana State, Monmouth at Campbell, East Tennessee State at Mercer, Yale at Harvard and South Dakota at Illinois State. The Big Sky, CAA and Ivy races finish on the final Saturday.
