Every week, before any games are played, the ratings pick a winner in each FCS-vs-FCS game: the team with more Power, plus home field. This page is the record of those picks. Each one used only the ratings published before kickoff, so nothing here was graded with hindsight. How the ratings work.
2026 season
70.4%
278 of 395 winners right
Average miss
12.5 pts
Predicted vs. actual margin, this season
All seasons
72.7%
2120 of 2916 winners right
Some weeks are full of upsets. A single week can swing a lot, so the season total matters more than any one week.
Grouped by how big the favorite was, in predicted points, across every season. When the ratings call a game close, it is close: those land near 50%. Big favorites almost always win.
Every pick in every season was made the same way: from the ratings as they stood before that week's games.
| Season | Games | Winners right | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 395 | 70.4% | 12.5 pts |
| 2025 | 658 | 76.1% | 12.1 pts |
| 2024 | 661 | 74.1% | 12.2 pts |
| 2023 | 595 | 71.6% | 12.7 pts |
| 2022 | 607 | 70.0% | 13.5 pts |
Final ratings after the title game.
| Season | Champion | Strength of record | Power | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | South Dakota State | #1 | #1 | #3 |
| 2023 | South Dakota State | #1 | #1 | #1 |
| 2024 | North Dakota State | #1 | #2 | #2 |
| 2025 | Montana State | #1 | #2 | #12 |