Dayton
Pioneer · 3-1 vs FCS · 5-1 overall
Strength of record
#45
A #25-level team matches it 84% of the time
Power
#72
−1.5 pts · likely #41–100
Strength of schedule
19.1
#116 of 128
Strength of victory
21.5
#47
Record SOS
0.388
Opp. 33.8% · Opp. opp. 49.0%
Remaining SOS
5.0
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
2-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Dayton. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Eastern Kentucky | W 17-14 | −0.2 | +2.4 | 0.321 | 2 | +4.2 |
| 5 | at Drake | L 22-30 | −11.0 | +2.4 | 0.116 | 3 | −14.0 |
| 6 | vs Morehead State | W 56-28 | −27.5 | −2.4 | 0.004 | 4 | −1.2 |
| 7 | at Butler | W 19-9 | −0.2 | +2.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: vs San Diego · p 0.063
- Wk 9: at Stetson · p 0.020
- Wk 10: vs Valparaiso · p 0.038
- Wk 11: vs Davidson · p 0.003
- Wk 12: at Presbyterian · p 0.124
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Fairmont StateDII · W 43-20
- Wk 2: vs Thomas More CollegeDII · W 30-7