Dayton
Pioneer · 2-1 vs FCS · 4-1 overall
Strength of record
#62
A #25-level team matches it 95% of the time
Power
#85
−3.4 pts · likely #48–108
Strength of schedule
17.5
#117 of 128
Strength of victory
19.6
2 wins
Record SOS
0.336
Opp. 25.0% · Opp. opp. 50.9%
Remaining SOS
9.7
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
1-0
Tier 3
Middle
0-1
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (3)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Dayton. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Eastern Kentucky | W 17-14 | +2.1 | +2.6 | 0.387 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 5 | at Drake | L 22-30 | −9.9 | +2.6 | 0.134 | 3 | −12.8 |
| 6 | vs Morehead State | W 56-28 | −26.7 | −2.6 | 0.005 | 4 | −1.4 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: at Butler · p 0.319
- Wk 8: vs San Diego · p 0.047
- Wk 9: at Stetson · p 0.018
- Wk 10: vs Valparaiso · p 0.058
- Wk 11: vs Davidson · p 0.003
- Wk 12: at Presbyterian · p 0.140
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: vs Fairmont StateDII · W 43-20
- Wk 2: vs Thomas More CollegeDII · W 30-7