Illinois State
MVFC · 3-0 vs FCS · 3-1 overall
Strength of record
#21
A #25-level team matches it 63% of the time
Power
#34
+6.8 pts · likely #14–65
Strength of schedule
13.9
#88 of 129
Strength of victory
13.9
#24
Record SOS
0.366
Opp. 22.2% · Opp. opp. 65.3%
Remaining SOS
59.9
13 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-0
Tier 3
Middle
2-0
Tier 4
Weak
1-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (3)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Illinois State. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morehead State | W 41-13 | −18.2 | −2.6 | 0.022 | 4 | +7.1 |
| 3 | at Eastern Illinois | W 42-30 | −6.4 | +2.6 | 0.193 | 3 | +8.2 |
| 4 | vs North Alabama | W 38-36 OT | −0.7 | −2.6 | 0.202 | 3 | +1.0 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 6: vs North Dakota State · p 0.901
- Wk 7: at Murray State · p 0.118
- Wk 8: vs Youngstown State · p 0.462
- Wk 9: at South Dakota · p 0.565
- Wk 10: vs Northern Iowa · p 0.251
- Wk 11: at Indiana State · p 0.290
- Wk 12: at South Dakota State · p 0.913
- Wk 13: vs Southern Illinois · p 0.693
- Wk 14: at Southeastern Louisiana · p 0.584
- Wk 15: at North Dakota State · p 0.949
- Wk 17: vs (N) Montana State · p 0.858
- Wk 17: at UC Davis · p 0.730
- Wk 17: at Villanova · p 0.474
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at OklahomaFBS · L 3-35