Merrimack
FCS Indep. · 2-2 vs FCS · 2-4 overall
Strength of record
#68
A #25-level team matches it 94% of the time
Power
#65
−0.5 pts · likely #38–95
Strength of schedule
27.5
#75 of 129
Strength of victory
22.2
2 wins
Record SOS
0.581
Opp. 62.1% · Opp. opp. 50.2%
Remaining SOS
12.8
5 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
2-1
Tier 4
Weak
0-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Merrimack. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Bucknell | W 31-21 | −4.0 | +1.7 | 0.221 | 3 | +6.6 |
| 4 | vs Maine | L 15-26 | −1.7 | −1.7 | 0.202 | 3 | −12.2 |
| 5 | vs Dartmouth | L 14-16 | +8.9 | −1.7 | 0.453 | 2 | +4.0 |
| 7 | at Morgan State | W 32-24 | −3.8 | +1.7 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 8: vs Stonehill · p 0.029
- Wk 9: vs Colgate · p 0.156
- Wk 10: at Robert Morris · p 0.241
- Wk 12: vs Sacred Heart · p 0.081
- Wk 13: at Fordham · p 0.132
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 1: at Air ForceFBS · L 6-21
- Wk 2: at UConnFBS · L 17-63