Dayton
Pioneer · 2-2 vs FCS · 3-2 overall
Strength of record
#92
A #25-level team matches it 99% of the time
Power
#125
−12.0 pts · likely #93–129
Strength of schedule
14.4
#128 of 130
Strength of victory
5.7
2 wins
Record SOS
0.217
Opp. 8.3% · Opp. opp. 48.3%
Remaining SOS
14.8
6 games left
Record by opponent quality
Tier 1
#25-level or better
0-0
Tier 2
Strong
0-1
Tier 3
Middle
0-1
Tier 4
Weak
2-0
- Tier 1, #25-level or better:
- Would be favored over a #25-level team
- Tier 2, Strong:
- Beats a #25-level team 25–50% of the time
- Tier 3, Middle:
- Beats a #25-level team 10–25% of the time
- Tier 4, Weak:
- Beats a #25-level team under 10% of the time
Counted games (4)
Opponent strength leaves out every game against Dayton. p = Φ((strength + site − 8.98) / 14.72), the chance a #25-level team loses that game. SOS is the average p; SOV is the average over wins.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp. strength | Site | p | Tier | Game power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Robert Morris | W 22-20 | −15.7 | +1.9 | 0.061 | 4 | −11.4 |
| 2 | at Youngstown State | L 16-49 | +1.3 | +1.9 | 0.347 | 2 | −27.5 |
| 5 | vs Drake | W 27-14 | −13.0 | −1.9 | 0.053 | 4 | −2.7 |
| 6 | at Butler | L 0-31 | −10.5 | +1.9 |
Remaining FCS games
- Wk 7: at Marist · p 0.087
- Wk 8: vs Stetson · p 0.086
- Wk 9: vs Valparaiso · p 0.183
- Wk 10: at Presbyterian · p 0.044
- Wk 11: vs Morehead State · p 0.062
- Wk 12: at Davidson · p 0.427
Not counted (opponent not FCS)
- Wk 3: vs Kentucky StateDII · W 46-3